Thinking, Fast and Slow
"Everything makes sense in hindsight, a fact that financial pundits exploit every evening as they offer convincing accounts of the day’s events. We cannot suppress the powerful intuition that what makes sense in hindsight today was actually predictable yesterday. The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future. Our tendency to construct and believe coherent narratives of the past makes it difficult for us to accept the limits of our forecasting ability and the role of luck in outcomes. We are prone to blame decision-makers for good decisions that worked out badly and to give them too little credit for successful moves that appeared obvious only after the fact. This is the essence of outcome bias."
The Undoing Project
"Man is a deterministic device thrown into a probabilistic universe. In this universe, events do not happen because they were meant to happen. They happen because of a long chain of prior events, many of which were themselves random. The human mind is not built to see this. It is built to see stories. It is built to see cause and effect. And because it cannot see the role of luck, it judges decisions by their results. It treats a good outcome as evidence of a good decision and a bad outcome as evidence of a bad decision. This is a mistake."
Mindset
In this book, you’ll learn how a simple belief about yourself—a belief we discovered in our research—guides a large part of your life. In fact, it permeates every part of your life. Much of what you think of as your personality actually grows out of this “mindset.” Much of what may be preventing you from fulfilling your potential grows out of it.