Superforecasting

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner

What it’s about

In Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner explore how certain individuals can predict future events with surprising accuracy. Based on the "Good Judgment Project," the book argues that forecasting is not an innate "gift" but a skill that can be cultivated through a rigorous and systematic application of a data-driven mindset.

Why I like it

The ideas of being extremely open to the possibility of being wrong, using data with integrity and rigor, and being quick to update oneself when new data arrives, are all strongly aligned with blue line management and fit well in the Shithappensian approach to living and learning.